Taiwan - Should I Stay or Should I Go Now?
Does the DPP Even Have a Surrender Plan?
“Should I stay or should I go now? If I go there will be trouble. And if I stay it will be double. So come on and let me know.” - The Clash; Album - Combat Rock (1982).
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7 December 2022
Taiwan - Should I Stay or Should I Go?
Does the DPP even have a surrender plan?
Wendell Minnick (Whiskey Mike) 顏文德
TAIPEI - Should I stay or should I go now?
Someone asks me that question almost everyday now.
The only question I have for them is this: Are you or have you ever been a member of the Democratic Progressive Party?
Because that answers the question.
No one is going to rescue them after China has taken the island. They are totally at China’s mercy. Friends and neighbors they have trusted for years will turn on them to save their own skin.
The nasty ones from China are known as the People’s Armed Police (PAP) who are basically sociopathic thugs. Brutish, sadistic, vile.
The DPP’s post-heroic, post-modern, infantile worldview is self-evident when the government tip-toes around imagining a day when the DPP has to lower the rainbow flag and raise the white flag. They do not have a plan. They do not think about it.
“Denial is the most predictable of all human responses," said the Architect to Neo in Matrix 3.
The signal to watch is the American School in Tien Mu where so many AIT families send their kids on U.S. taxpayer dollars.
When little Johnny or Sally suddenly have to go back to the U.S. to visit a sick grandma and the same excuse or some poor equivalent begin mounting over a week, panic will spread. Rumors at the American Club will also not be helpful. No one gossips more than AIT wives…nor does anyone have the best marijuana.
When the commercial flights to the U.S. are booked solid, then you will see families booking flights to anywhere on the planet. When that gets maxed out, you can guarantee yourself that captains of fishing vessels will begin getting phone calls to take them to Okinawa. Unfortunately, this is a major U.S. military hub and no doubt a primary Chinese missile target.
The airspace between Taiwan and Okinawa with be contested during this period of time with Japanese and Chinese fighter aircraft screaming over the radio at each other to vacate their territory. Very ugly. Lots of profanity.
Fishing boats might take you to the Philippines, but chances are you will be victimized by Manila gangs or the police (is there a difference?).
There will not be a U.S. military evacuation from Taiwan as there was in Vietnam and Afghanistan. The Chinese navy will control the waters along Taiwan’s east coast. U.S. Navy aircraft carriers, fearing China’s new DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missiles, will operate further from Taiwan than in the past.
If too far, it might be beyond the range of Taiwan for helicopters. There might be some early evacuations to Okinawa and Guam, but the fighter escorts of military transports to Guam require three air refuelings one-way.
Taiwan’s ultra-rich have already begun making inquiries in Singapore about property and banking as a back door. Controlled by an ethnic Chinese government, the mega filthy rich will feel safer there, despite the one-party city-state model that has been jokingly referred to as Disneyland with a Death Penalty.
During the 1995-1996 Taiwan Strait Missile Crisis the U.S. deployed two Aircraft Carrier Task Forces north and south of Taiwan. Enraged, the Chinese swore the U.S. would never do that again, and began developing more anti-ship cruise missiles and advanced torpedoes for submarines. As China’s fighter aircraft fleet expanded with the help of Russia and the Ukraine, more deadly air-launched missiles and bombs were developed.
Now the Chinese have too many destroyers and frigates for the U.S. to even get close to the island without bloodshed. Actually, the Chinese Navy is now the largest in the world.
Over the past ten years, China has built 25 Type 52D Destroyers in a cookie cutter mania unseen before in Chinese military history. This does not even count the older 52Cs and the new stealth Type 55 (x5). And guess what? The same cookie-cutter, Grandma’s on meth, approach has produced 30 Type 54A Frigates in the same amount of time.
In just ten years - what’s the rush?
And if you think China’s new builds are junk, I was on an upgraded 054A Jiangkai II frigate, 569 Yulin, a few years back and was shocked in comparison to older Chinese frigates I had visited:
During the 1995-1996 Crisis the rumor was that American citizens would report to the American School in Tien Mu to be either evacuated by helicopters or placed on buses to the airport. But this plan seemed unreasonable even with the obvious pre-planning the architects took to make the wall around the school and the soccer field behind it useable for this purpose. The plan was to chopper in the U.S. Marine’s Fleet Anti-Terror Security Team (FAST) to secure the school.
The problem, one AIT employee told me at the time, was there were too many Taiwanese with dual passports. The U.S. also had a commitment to assist citizens of NATO and Allied nations.
So when the shooting starts, you are stuck here.
If you are one of the members of the 335,643 strong DPP, you might be safe for a few months before the PAP round you up, but they will get to you eventually.
The Chinese intelligence apparatus has every detail on every member. Hackers have made that abundantly clear, so pretending you just joined due to peer pressure or get revenge against your KMT parents or meet a new lover will not work.
Execution via traditional methods or slow dismemberment via organ harvesting? Which is more sadistic for your reading pleasure?
Neo-Baroque Sadism or Masochism? A bullet is far more noble and macho. There is a certain romanticism of being executed by firing squad. Something old fashioned and traditional. But to slowly dismember a person? That is just sick, but it comes with a comfortable profit-loss margin that appeals to a Communist-minded algorithm.
Tier 1 = DPP leadership will have the worst time of it. I expect them to be executed in a variety of amusing ways. Perhaps, if they are young and healthy, they will be organ donors.
Tier 2 = DPP regular members will find it hard to get a job, get medical attention, put their kids in good schools, complain to the police after their daughter was raped by Chinese soldiers…all the fun stuff.
I recommend teenage girls cut their hair like men, wear pants, and stay in groups when going out. Avoid the shadows.
If Taiwanese men think they are going to avoid the draft under Beijing’s rule, they are seriously mistaken. If anything, Taiwan will become the rampart of China’s domination of the Pacific and ports such as Suao and Keelung will play key roles.
Hualien’s underground airbase and Taitung’s catacombs protecting fighter jets in the mountains will serve as launching off points to turn the Pacific into the new Sino-Sea.
Suao Port is of particular fascination for China’s Navy. As submarines leave the port, the undersea geography drops into the abyss. As it drops and disappears, so do submarines as they use the ocean’s thermal layers to hide from surface sonars.
When Taiwan does fall and the survivors safely arrive in the U.S., they will start an NGO in Washington, D.C. dedicated to retaking Taiwan and pushing China to democratize. There will be testimonials and lectures from victims who survived Chinese human rights violations after the invasion. There will be big fund raiser banquets with members of Congress attending.
Then, as all refugee NGOs do, it will begin to loose steam. Fewer members of Congress will show up. The money will slowly dry up. Former members of the elite DPP leadership will focus on their families and new careers. Then one day, the so-called NGO, will get caught up in a scandal involving missing donations or money laundering. It will be shut down and forgotten. Just like Taiwan.
So should I stay or should I go now?
END
I am totally with you on that Wendell, no matter how sad it is
A fantastic article, respect
I just downloaded the book
Thanks, it's depressing analysis.