1) There was an idea that the USA should arm all residents of Taiwan as in the USA. Do you think this is a worthwhile idea?
2) As many people know, Congress wants to ban TikTok for fear that they will manipulate opinion in cases of an attack on Taiwan. How reasonable is this?
3) Congress also wants to push through the restrict act. If it is approved, won't it be exactly like in China or even worse?
4)Do you think that the United States has learned valuable lessons from the war in Ukraine to fight China, as Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks says
1)If the Kuomintang comes to power in China in 2024, then will there be a peaceful reunification (although at least 3/4 do not want reunification) well, maybe this will be a sign that there will be no invasion for at least another 4 years, or do you think a military invasion is inevitable?
2) in your opinion, if Taiwan is invaded, what will the main Asian allies of the United States do after?
Will they change their attitude towards America or will they strengthen even more against China?
3) Is China not afraid to blow up TSMC?
4) Have you heard the theory that Russia will present its submarines and ships when capturing Taiwan to China. Do you share the thought?
5) The Russian army turned out to be complete bullshit. The army was completely plundered. No one will give an exact answer, but could it be that the Chinese army is also a paper tiger?
This is a major debate now...KMT winning 2024. With all this US military aid pouring in at the same time. The US govt has built this narrative that the DPP is the only political party in Taiwan...so it'll be a shock. I do agree that a KMT controlled Executive Yuan would begin the process of "Finlandization". If the DPP wins again in 2024 along with a strong legislature, that will be pretty much the end of any chance for a peaceful resolution. Regarding TSMC, I do not buy the "narrative" it would be destroyed by their own people. I do beileve everyone will want to preserve the facility, but once China takes Taiwan they'll begin hallowing out the island of its high-tech capabilities and moving them to the mainland. I haven't heard anything about the Russians attempting to provide support for a Chinese invasion and feel China has more than enough air/naval caps to do the job. The timeline is most likely as follows:
Ghost Month 2023 - China conducts another big exercise
Election - KMT vs DPP
Tomb Sweeping 2024 - China conducts another mother of an exercise
Ghost Month 2024 - China takes military action to secure the air and sea.
Tomb Sweeping 2024 - If Taiwan has not surrendered after six months of air and sea blockade, then a ground invasion.
This is purely speculation...but I think it's a safe timeline.
Considering all the problems that you cover in your newsletter, if you were deciding which path you would choose for Taiwan. Give up the war or fight to the end?
Ukrainians also did not believe in themselves before the war broke out, they withstood the most difficult part at the beginning of the war against a much superior enemy, and now their effectiveness is higher than that of the Russians. It seems that 2,000 Russian tanks and about 400 Ukrainian tanks were destroyed, according to the merged data from the Pentagon. As for the mafia and spies in Taiwan, there were 10 times more of them in Ukraine, and even now there are, but people are still fighting.I understand that the type of war will be different, but maybe there is a chance for the spirit of the Taiwanese. But Taiwan and Ukraine probably need the ability to rely primarily on themselves as Israel. I can speak Russian and I see that Ukrainians are being fed with promises of huge arms supplies in the Ukrainian information field, but they give so much to keep them. They needed to run their military-industrial complex at full capacity. About Taiwan, if I understood your articles correctly, not completely, but there are some similar situations.
Taiwan will be an Air/Sea Battle, not Land until China controls the egress and ingress. There might special operations by China within Taiwan for active measures operations (assassination, sabotage, etc.), but until the radar, air defense missiles, air bases are knocked out, it will not be safe to cross the Taiwan Strait.
Alright my smooth brain don't get this. How would jammed GPS not affecting all the civilian location services? Uber and food delivery services and car navigation and such all use GPS nowadays. I thought People would complain about downed GPS right away on social media if it were a thing, even if it had only affected civilian aviation. And CAA had "not received information on the subject" at least yesterday 4PM, from a reporter that actually asked them. In addition, "CAA spokesperson seemed annoyed though"
The US does not have the men and machines for an all-out war with China over an island that is only 7 minutes from the nearest Chinese air base. The missiles are much less than that...
Regarding the US blockading the busiest shipping lane in the world...well the planet will go apeshit. Singapore will not support the US as a logistics/maintenance hub if China goes to war with the US. A blockade is a form of proportionality. The Chinese occupy the South China Sea. It is a spider web of islands with integrated radars, air defense missiles, anti-ship missiles, air bases, port facilities, signal intelligence, etc, etc. The Koreans and the Japanese will WANT their oil as well...and the SCS is a problem for those shipments. We blockade the Malacca Strait and Singapore closes access to their port facilities for US warships? And/Or we go forward with a blockade with Singapore's support and China shuts down shipping through the SCS? Proportionality is literally an eye-for-eye. The US tries to exercise it in war gaming. But Chinese does not. If for example the U.S. accidentally fired a nuclear tipped (10 megaton) missile that hits Shanghai. What is the proportional response from China? Los Angeles...this would be worked out in a phone call between both sides to stop escalation. But China might not pick the red line up...which has been a problem with Beijing in past crises. In one scenario, if the Chinese were willing to talk, would be that we nuke LA for them to avoid an errant missile strike. Sounds crazy? So does full-scale nuclear war...this is Proportionality.
Basically, Taiwan’s entire island is under China’s air defense radar from land-based systems along the coast. This means that China is gaining in air superiority (4 stages, like cancer). At present they are stage 3 and will be at stage 4 soon.
Do you think they will want to attack Taiwan under the Biden administration, because the rhetoric of the Taiwan issue will be stronger under Republicans like Trump or Desantis?
If I really believed Biden had "agency" but I think he's basically just an old demented man controlled by handlers. Who is really running the show at the WH? Most likely former Clinton/Obama people. Do they want a war with China? Who knows, but their rhetoric is disturbing. I live only minutes from a short-range ballistic missile strike. The primary target in my residential area is the Air Defense Command behind National Taiwan University. It's an underground bunker facility. In order to take it out, they'll have to use everything they got. Even with a CEP (circular error probability) of only a few meters on Chinese missiles and cruise missiles, I doubt they'll all hit the target without causing significant damage to the area. Ironically, most NTU students have no clue they're right next door to a primary target...lol.
Meanwhile NTUST be like literally across the street of Air Combat Command. Yeah we are talking about the same unit. I served there and went to NTU. People only talk about Taipei First Girls High School that's just an intersection away from President's Office. I guess few local actually care avout the real juicy targets for commies.
Yeah, the Air Defense Command is a hollowed out mountain behind NTUST. It belonged to the US Air Force during the Cold War. Most of the antenna on top of the mountain are either microwaves or curtain antenna for the E-2 Hawkeyes. The Chinese do not really need bunker busters to knock it, as I suggested earlier, just shear off the top of the mountain. If walk along the hiking trails above Hengshan Command Post who'll notice the microwaves pointed at the same facility near NTUST. There is also a signal intelligence facility on top of Hengshan with high frequency antennas. At the SigInt base, if you walk around to the back of the wall you'll see an odd satillite dish pointing horizontally. This appears to link up with the U.S.-Taiwan SigInt facility on Yangminshan at Pingtun Li.
Alright we can stop guessing. Some government agency was probably calibrating their instrument and caused that.
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202304260183.aspx
I've updated the article to include your link.
I'm sorry if I ask too many questions
1) There was an idea that the USA should arm all residents of Taiwan as in the USA. Do you think this is a worthwhile idea?
2) As many people know, Congress wants to ban TikTok for fear that they will manipulate opinion in cases of an attack on Taiwan. How reasonable is this?
3) Congress also wants to push through the restrict act. If it is approved, won't it be exactly like in China or even worse?
4)Do you think that the United States has learned valuable lessons from the war in Ukraine to fight China, as Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks says
1)If the Kuomintang comes to power in China in 2024, then will there be a peaceful reunification (although at least 3/4 do not want reunification) well, maybe this will be a sign that there will be no invasion for at least another 4 years, or do you think a military invasion is inevitable?
2) in your opinion, if Taiwan is invaded, what will the main Asian allies of the United States do after?
Will they change their attitude towards America or will they strengthen even more against China?
3) Is China not afraid to blow up TSMC?
4) Have you heard the theory that Russia will present its submarines and ships when capturing Taiwan to China. Do you share the thought?
5) The Russian army turned out to be complete bullshit. The army was completely plundered. No one will give an exact answer, but could it be that the Chinese army is also a paper tiger?
This is a major debate now...KMT winning 2024. With all this US military aid pouring in at the same time. The US govt has built this narrative that the DPP is the only political party in Taiwan...so it'll be a shock. I do agree that a KMT controlled Executive Yuan would begin the process of "Finlandization". If the DPP wins again in 2024 along with a strong legislature, that will be pretty much the end of any chance for a peaceful resolution. Regarding TSMC, I do not buy the "narrative" it would be destroyed by their own people. I do beileve everyone will want to preserve the facility, but once China takes Taiwan they'll begin hallowing out the island of its high-tech capabilities and moving them to the mainland. I haven't heard anything about the Russians attempting to provide support for a Chinese invasion and feel China has more than enough air/naval caps to do the job. The timeline is most likely as follows:
Ghost Month 2023 - China conducts another big exercise
Election - KMT vs DPP
Tomb Sweeping 2024 - China conducts another mother of an exercise
Ghost Month 2024 - China takes military action to secure the air and sea.
Tomb Sweeping 2024 - If Taiwan has not surrendered after six months of air and sea blockade, then a ground invasion.
This is purely speculation...but I think it's a safe timeline.
Considering all the problems that you cover in your newsletter, if you were deciding which path you would choose for Taiwan. Give up the war or fight to the end?
Ukrainians also did not believe in themselves before the war broke out, they withstood the most difficult part at the beginning of the war against a much superior enemy, and now their effectiveness is higher than that of the Russians. It seems that 2,000 Russian tanks and about 400 Ukrainian tanks were destroyed, according to the merged data from the Pentagon. As for the mafia and spies in Taiwan, there were 10 times more of them in Ukraine, and even now there are, but people are still fighting.I understand that the type of war will be different, but maybe there is a chance for the spirit of the Taiwanese. But Taiwan and Ukraine probably need the ability to rely primarily on themselves as Israel. I can speak Russian and I see that Ukrainians are being fed with promises of huge arms supplies in the Ukrainian information field, but they give so much to keep them. They needed to run their military-industrial complex at full capacity. About Taiwan, if I understood your articles correctly, not completely, but there are some similar situations.
Taiwan will be an Air/Sea Battle, not Land until China controls the egress and ingress. There might special operations by China within Taiwan for active measures operations (assassination, sabotage, etc.), but until the radar, air defense missiles, air bases are knocked out, it will not be safe to cross the Taiwan Strait.
Alright my smooth brain don't get this. How would jammed GPS not affecting all the civilian location services? Uber and food delivery services and car navigation and such all use GPS nowadays. I thought People would complain about downed GPS right away on social media if it were a thing, even if it had only affected civilian aviation. And CAA had "not received information on the subject" at least yesterday 4PM, from a reporter that actually asked them. In addition, "CAA spokesperson seemed annoyed though"
Hello
I understand that this is a military-themed newsletter, but let's say China has seized Taiwan, but then what?
the US will block the Strait of Malacca and China will not be able to receive oil and other resources, etc.
After all, China is strong only on its territory and will not be able to compete with America for at least another 10 years in neutral waters.
what will be the consequences in your opinion?
It has to do with Proportionality
https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=MacNamara+propotionality%2C+video&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:1e7ddff5,vid:Ko3q51BlLgs
The US does not have the men and machines for an all-out war with China over an island that is only 7 minutes from the nearest Chinese air base. The missiles are much less than that...
Regarding the US blockading the busiest shipping lane in the world...well the planet will go apeshit. Singapore will not support the US as a logistics/maintenance hub if China goes to war with the US. A blockade is a form of proportionality. The Chinese occupy the South China Sea. It is a spider web of islands with integrated radars, air defense missiles, anti-ship missiles, air bases, port facilities, signal intelligence, etc, etc. The Koreans and the Japanese will WANT their oil as well...and the SCS is a problem for those shipments. We blockade the Malacca Strait and Singapore closes access to their port facilities for US warships? And/Or we go forward with a blockade with Singapore's support and China shuts down shipping through the SCS? Proportionality is literally an eye-for-eye. The US tries to exercise it in war gaming. But Chinese does not. If for example the U.S. accidentally fired a nuclear tipped (10 megaton) missile that hits Shanghai. What is the proportional response from China? Los Angeles...this would be worked out in a phone call between both sides to stop escalation. But China might not pick the red line up...which has been a problem with Beijing in past crises. In one scenario, if the Chinese were willing to talk, would be that we nuke LA for them to avoid an errant missile strike. Sounds crazy? So does full-scale nuclear war...this is Proportionality.
Basically, Taiwan’s entire island is under China’s air defense radar from land-based systems along the coast. This means that China is gaining in air superiority (4 stages, like cancer). At present they are stage 3 and will be at stage 4 soon.
Do you think they will want to attack Taiwan under the Biden administration, because the rhetoric of the Taiwan issue will be stronger under Republicans like Trump or Desantis?
If I really believed Biden had "agency" but I think he's basically just an old demented man controlled by handlers. Who is really running the show at the WH? Most likely former Clinton/Obama people. Do they want a war with China? Who knows, but their rhetoric is disturbing. I live only minutes from a short-range ballistic missile strike. The primary target in my residential area is the Air Defense Command behind National Taiwan University. It's an underground bunker facility. In order to take it out, they'll have to use everything they got. Even with a CEP (circular error probability) of only a few meters on Chinese missiles and cruise missiles, I doubt they'll all hit the target without causing significant damage to the area. Ironically, most NTU students have no clue they're right next door to a primary target...lol.
Meanwhile NTUST be like literally across the street of Air Combat Command. Yeah we are talking about the same unit. I served there and went to NTU. People only talk about Taipei First Girls High School that's just an intersection away from President's Office. I guess few local actually care avout the real juicy targets for commies.
Yeah, the Air Defense Command is a hollowed out mountain behind NTUST. It belonged to the US Air Force during the Cold War. Most of the antenna on top of the mountain are either microwaves or curtain antenna for the E-2 Hawkeyes. The Chinese do not really need bunker busters to knock it, as I suggested earlier, just shear off the top of the mountain. If walk along the hiking trails above Hengshan Command Post who'll notice the microwaves pointed at the same facility near NTUST. There is also a signal intelligence facility on top of Hengshan with high frequency antennas. At the SigInt base, if you walk around to the back of the wall you'll see an odd satillite dish pointing horizontally. This appears to link up with the U.S.-Taiwan SigInt facility on Yangminshan at Pingtun Li.