Why Taiwan Will Lose
Morale, Training, Delusion, Lies
China In Arms BOOKSTORE and GIFT SHOP!
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25 September 2024 (Wednesday)
Why Taiwan Will Lose
Morale, Training, Delusion, Lies
By Wendell Minnick (Whiskey Mike) 顏文德
TAIPEI - A friend going back 30-years that just retired from Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense (MND) just wrote this to me:
飛行員不夠、阿兵哥也不夠，
陸海空三軍都缺員，
第一線戰鬥部隊實際人數還不到應有編制的八成，
嚴重影響部隊戰力。
這樣是要怎麼抗中保台？
Not enough pilots, not enough soldiers.
The army, sea and air forces are short of personnel.
The actual number of frontline combat troops is less than 80% of what they should have.
Serious impact on the strength of the troops.
How can we “fight China, save Taiwan?”
In a 2019 article I wrote for National Interest, before conscription was extended to only one-year, I exposed the lie that Taiwan’s MND was touting about the actual numbers of fighting men they had for combat. I also wrote about the problem of manning all the new equipment they had ordered (F-16V Fighters, M1 Abrams main battle tanks, new locally-built corvettes and frigates) and came to the following conclusion:
Even if Taiwan procures all of its dreams and desires from the U.S. government, then the question becomes: who will fly them, drive them, sail them and fire them.
According to the Ministry of National Defense (MND), the current estimate of personnel officially stands at 215,000. Many critics argue that this is the bare minimum needed to repel the first wave of a Chinese invasion.
Now remember, that is the minimum.
The reduction to 215,000 was the result of the 2011–2014 Jing-cui streamlining program, which was extended to 2015. Fortunately, the follow-up Yung-gu plan was canceled. It would have further reduced the number from 215,000 to 175,000 and eliminated conscription entirely, opting for an all-volunteer force.
Now, recruiters face a real nightmare. Last year the big brains in the presidential office cut pensions 30 percent, with plans to further reduce it 50 percent.
Even though Yung-gu is temporarily on hold, the official current number, 215,000, is an outright lie. The actual number of operational active duty personnel is devastating.
There are actually only 188,000 in total and if you exclude civilian employees, noncombat personnel, those on leave, and cadets, the actual number of warfighters is 152,280; 81 percent of the authorized strength levels needed for fending off an invasion.
Part of the problem is conscription and a decline in patriotism.
Books for further study:
Taiwan Army Weapons and Equipment, including Marine Corps (2022)
Taiwan Cyberwarfare: Government and Military Documents (2018)
spot on
why would the Taiwanese fight - that's what Americans and maybe Japanese are for