Taiwan's Stage 3 Cancer

No Where To Hide, Run, Shelter

Above: Joint Operations Command Center (JOCC) is inside a hollowed out facility within Toad Mountain, Fuxing Camp, Da'an District, directly behind NTU.  It is the highest command and control agency of the Air Force tactical and anti-aircraft operations.

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11 AUGUST 2022

Taiwan's Stage 3 Cancer

No Where To Hide, Run, Shelter

By Wendell Minnick (Whiskey Mike)

Taiwan has cancer. Stage 3. It has gone to the Americans for the best medical expertise and Uncle Sam has done his best. Taiwan has gone to the witch doctors of Chinese medicine with suction cups and needles, still nothing. Local temples have performed exorcisms, but the devil waits outside the gates tapping his foot, increasingly impatient.

In 2006, China finally established Air Parity with Taiwan (Stage 1). Where no side held any level of control, later China slowly reached the status of Favorable Air Situation (Stage 2), where Beijing had limited air superiority depending on conditions. And now, China has Air Superiority (Stage 3) which is evident from the situation from the map below. Next is Air Supremacy (Stage 4) where China holds complete control of the skies over Taiwan.

To further aggravate the situation, China’s recent August 2022 air and naval exercise demonstrated China’s ability to encircle Taiwan in a pincer movement (aka double envelopment).

These are like the four stages of cancer. Taiwan is basically in the third stage, what doctors call metastasized cancer. There is no reversal. No hand of God to save the island democracy of 23 million.

Taiwan should have already noticed China’s air power campaign illustrated by this 2021 map below, covering 30-days (1 Sept-4 Oct).

IF this was an X-Ray of the third stage of cancer, it would look like this:

This is not to say that Taiwan’s Air Force does not have the ability to intercept Chinese aircraft. This is evident (see below), but once the air bases are shattered by China’s ballistic missiles and cruise missiles via multi-directional, multi-layered saturation strikes, Taiwan’s ability to protect the air space lies solely with its ground and naval air defense options, such as the Patriot PAC-3 missile batteries. On top of land-attack cruise missiles, China has a plethora of anti-ship cruise missiles. To make matters worse, China has a wide range of multi-launch rocket systems with varying degrees of accuracy capable of being launched from ground bases along China’s coast that are well within range of Taiwan.

ABOVE: Taiwan Air Force celebrates the interception of a Chinese H-6H Strategic Bomber by an F-16 fighter aircraft on 20 July 2017. Patch - Author Collection.Taiwan does have a wide range of ground-based and naval air defense systems: Patriot PAC-3, Tien Kung (Sky Boy) 1/2/3, MIM-23 I-HAWK, Tien Chien-2 (Sky Sword), Antelope, 20mm Phalanx Close-In Weapon System, Standard Missiles (SM-1MR/SM-2MR), MIM-72C/F Sea Chaparral, Dual Mount Stinger, and M998 Avenger Stingers.

There is no doubt that Taiwan will shoot down many Chinese fighter and bomber aircraft, even successfully knocking out some cruise missiles and ballistic missiles. The problem with shooting down any sort of enemy projectile is that you may have saved the target from destruction, but the warhead is still plunging down on Taiwan’s urban environment.

For example, the Air Force’s Joint Operations Command Center (JOCC) is inside a hollowed out facility within Toad Mountain, Fuxing Camp, Da'an District, directly behind National Taiwan University (NTU).  It is the highest command and control agency of the Air Force’s tactical and anti-aircraft operations.

Defending JOCC comes with a price. Shooting down incoming missiles and aircraft only momentarily saves it from eventual annihilation, but a college dorm on NTU’s campus gets the message.

Below: Three photos I took from behind Gongguan Elementary School.

Joint Operations Command Center (JOCC) is inside a hollowed out facility within Toad Mountain, Fuxing Camp, Da'an District, directly behind NTU.  It is the highest command and control agency of the Air Force tactical and anti-aircraft operations. Author photo.

ABOVE: Forgive the poor quality of these photos. Taken at dusk. These microwave antennas send and receive data from other air defense collection points around Taiwan. Author photo.

ABOVE: Curtain Antenna most likely for E-2 Hawkeye Aircraft. Author Photo.

The problem with China’s missile technology, regarding cruise missiles and ballistic missiles, is that it can hit the target within 3-10 meters (what is referred to as CEP). Ballistic missiles like the Dong Feng-21C with Beitou Satellite guidance is a 10 meter CEP, and yet the new DF-26 can by off target by 100 meters (330 feet).

This might not matter much for an airbase, but a reinforced bunker like Toad Mountain or Hengshan then it could be difficult to knock out without using bunker busters. Once again, the antennas on top of these facilities would be sheared off like a lawn mower with ordinary bombs, so penetrating the bunker itself might not be necessary.

This is a significant improvement over China’s precision strike capabilities during the 1995-1996 Taiwan Strait Missile Crisis where missiles were miles off target.

Author’s collection. “March Madness 96” commemorative patch for the 1995-1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis (Third Taiwan Strait Crisis) from July 21, 1995 to March 23, 1996.  The U.S. sent two aircraft carrier groups to the area.  The patch lists only two USS Navy assets: Carrier Air Wing Five (CVW-5) and USS Independence (CV-62).  On the top is the triangle insignia for the CVW-5.  At the bottom is the First Navy Jack flag with a rattlesnake with gold scales and the “Don’t Tread On Me” slogan against red and white stripes.  “It’s The Only Game In Town” with four dice at bottom.

So anything Taiwan misses via air defense will hammer its target head-on. Down the mouth, out the ass.

End