Project 2049 Institute - Shake Up
The Beginning of the End?
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31 October 2023 (Tuesday) - Halloween
Project 2049 Institute - Shake Up
The Beginning of the End?
By Wendell Minnick (Whiskey Mike) 顏文德
TAIPEI - The legendary Arlington-based think tank, the Project 2049 Institute is going through rough times, say sources.
Over the past six weeks, 2049 lost two members with impeccable credentials: Mark Stokes and Ian Easton.
Stokes retired out as Executive Director and Easton left to join the U.S. Naval War College in Rhode Island.
Another talent, Eric Lee, left after four years with 2049 in May. As Associate Director of Programs, Lee’s perfect Mandarin was an essential tool that served as a force multiplier for 2049 reports. He is now a staff member of the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee.
Easton, with 2049 since 2009 as a researcher, had made his mark with his pivotal 2017 book: The Chinese Invasion Threat: Taiwan’s Defense and American Strategy in Asia. His research garnered some jealousy within the Washington think tank community as Easton was able to read Chinese military (PLA) documents and had no government security clearance; yet his research buried the likes of CSIS and RAND, endlessly embarrassing them.
Stokes’ career as a former intelligence collection officer in China earned him the coveted “Spook of the Year Award” (Exceptional Collector National Human Intelligence Award). It is a decoration awarded annually by the CIA’s Director of Central Intelligence to individuals for improved Human Intelligence (HUMINT) collection and the reporting of information that is of significant value to the intelligence community.
ABOVE: Circa late 2000s: Left to Right: Max Hirsch, the late Taiwan Naval Captain Winston Li, Wendell Minnick, Ian Easton, Mark Stokes.
A source said Chairman Randall Schriver and Board Advisor Dan Blumenthal, of the American Enterprise Institute, will focus entirely on the China Economic and Strategy Initiative (CESI) and slowly disengage from 2049.
This would be an awkward divorce.
CESI, founded in 2022, by Blumenthal and Schriver as vice chairmen, operates as a non-profit using the same office address as 2049, at least on paper.
Over the past month it has already overshadowed 2049 with a list of experts that put those left behind at 2049 to shame. Apparently, the remainders did not get their tickets before the last helicopter left the roof of the embassy.
According to the CESI website, their core mission sounds very similar to 2049. That is, to ensure that policymakers are equipped with the knowledge and “tool kit” necessary to develop a comprehensive and actionable strategy to compete with China. Further, the U.S. must counter China’s malign actions and uphold a free and open system… . To compete long term across the diplomatic, defense, and economic arenas.
There appears to be no overlap between 2049 and CESI, minus Blumenthal and Schriver. I half expected Rupert Hammond-Chambers to appear on the mast, as he does on the 2049 website, but nothing yet.
The four Commissioners on the CESI website are a dream team:
The legendary Matt Pottinger, who recently visited Taiwan with an Israeli delegation. Pottinger, who serves as Chairman of the China Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), showed up in Taipei in June 2023 with FDD chief executive Mark Dubowitz, and Jacob Nagel. Nagel, a senior fellow at FDD, previously served as head of Israel's National Security Council and as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's national security advisor (acting). Dubowitz and Nagel are Iran nuclear weapons specialists and have an intense interest in Chinese military issues. Note: read between the lines here if you want.
Sheena Chestnut Greitens, known for her boots-on-the-ground research ethic and the 2016 book: Dictators and their Secret Police: Coercive Institutions and State Violence. She is currently finishing a book on internal security and Chinese grand strategy. Her previous research on North Korea is epic.
Nazak Nikakhtar, known as an international trade and national security attorney, earned her spurs serving as the Department of Commerce’s Assistant Secretary for Industry & Analysis at the International Trade Administration (ITA) and as the Under Secretary for Industry and Security at Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS).
Peter Berkowitz, the Tad and Dianne Taube Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford, served from 2019-2021 as the Director of the State Department’s Policy Planning Staff. Under his direction, the Policy Planning Staff published "The Elements of the China Challenge".
One retired U.S. State Department officer with vast wisdom over such mysteries said:
Their true raison d'etre rarely has much to do with informing policy makers and the public debate, and a great deal to do with positioning people for jobs in senior political positions in the federal government ... and for "monetizing" that "public service" when out of office and back in the private sector.
These observations are of course prompted by the fact that another presidential campaign looms, and so it is time for the deck chairs in ThinkTankWorld to rearrange themselves as persons begin to "audition" (the sardonic term of art in Washington) for positions in the campaigns that will lead, if all goes well, to positions in the next administration.
What the end game will be for 2049 is unclear, but many fear 2049 will wither away as CESI continues to grow.
If true, 2049 was a valiant effort.
Co-founded in 2008 by Schriver and Stokes, these men were the driving force for the creation of the little engine that could with the legendary Richard Armitage as the wizard behind the curtain.
Rumblings of problems were revealed at the 2023 U.S.-Taiwan Defense Conference (1-3 October) where many of the 2049 crew gave speeches and moderated panels. These rumors included bickering over a drop in financial donations and fears of a breakup of 2049.
According to documents released by 2049, open sourced, indicate a lack of support from Taiwan itself. In 2017, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense donated only $129,357 and Taiwan’s de facto embassy in Washington (TECRO) gave $150,000. Recent disclosures are unavailable.
2049 did receive donations from the U.S. State Department, the Japanese government, South Korean government, corporate sponsors such as BAE, Dyncorp, Pointe Bello, SAIC, and NGOs such as the National Endowment for Democracy and Sarah Scaife Foundation.
Records available to the public:
2009 - Donations = $420,148/Expenses = $359,245
2010 - Donations = $420,148/Expenses = $359,254
2011 - Donations = $450,701/Expenses = $748,971
2012 - Donations = $603,207/Expenses = $643,334
2013 - Donations = $755,487/Expenses = $746,429
2014 - Donations = $768,282/Expenses = $738,723
Then there is a break in records between 2015-2016.
2017 - Donations = $1,290,208/Expenses = $1,119,208
2049 sources said rumors of failed Taiwan support are untrue.
However, in 2017, Japan gave a total of $172,705 and Taiwan gave $129,357.
But based on my conversations with former members, it does appear true, and it is my opinion, it will be a great loss as an alternative to U.S. government funded think tanks that often serve only to promote U.S. policy; a self-licking ice cream cone, liaison d amour.
