Let A Hundred Flowers Bloom 百花齐放
China's Spring Tri-Service Annual Exercise Might Get Ugly for Taiwan
OPINION
WENDELL MINNICK
I wonder...just wonder...what China’s upcoming Spring tri-service exercise will include now that the U.S. Navy and Air Force are now committed to the Iranian problem?
You can bet your sweet ass that Chinese defense folks in Tehran are studying the wins and losses of Iran’s drone and missile strikes on Israel. Applications useable for a Taiwan scenario.
Keeping the U.S. military busy in the Middle East is a good thing for China’s two upcoming tri-service exercises.
For 2024, the best times for direct action on Taiwan is May-June and August (Ghost Month), solely based on the predictability of sea states in the Taiwan Strait each year.
Spring would be a great time to unleash China’s air power on Taiwan’s air bases, radars, command-and-control nodes, etc.
This would begin with cruise and ballistic missile strikes, along with anti-ship missiles pounding ships at sea and at port.
Once Taiwan’s air defense is down, then the vampires would come.
Fighter aircraft from both China’s Air Force and Navy would want a piece of the action.
This could become a War Like No Other for China and the U.S. The same fate of Athens vs. Sparta. Two superpowers fighting to the teeth in a war that will echo throughout this century and the next.
Or is it really the same as the Peloponnesian War?
For China, it is about reunification of the last piece of sacred land stolen by hegemonic colonial powers.
For the U.S., whispers of “trust me” to Taiwan’s democratic leadership, backed by a reluctant Japan and, of course, South Korea that always goes MIA at the last minute.
The U.S. would have to respond with forces at hand. It would be a “come as you are party [war].”
U.S. missiles for the armed forces are being exhausted by Ukraine, now Iran, with increased concerns the defense industry can quickly replace those stockpiles, not to forget filling backlogged orders from our allies and friends.
I assume Moscow would take this opportunity to make another big push in Ukraine.
Maybe even the North Koreans will do something stupid.
And with the U.S. election evolving into an election like no other, many Americans will wonder where Taiwan is on a map.