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28 April 2023 (Friday)
Invasion Timeline - T-Day
Whiskey Mike's Best Guesstimate
By Wendell Minnick (Whiskey Mike) 顏文德
TAIPEI - There is a major debate now on what happens if the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) wins Taiwan’s 2024 presidential election. Hell, there is also a scary debate on what happens if the KMT does NOT win.
With all this U.S. military aid pouring in and muscular Americans walking around acting like they are just little ole’ English teachers, there is some concern that the U.S. government has built a narrative that the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is the only political party in Taiwan.
After all, it is very progressive. The very fad sweeping political passions in America with gay marriage and eliminating nuke power plants with plans to save the polar bear with wind farms.
So it will be a shock to policy wonks in Washington if the KMT wins the 2024 Presidency and begins the process of "Finlandization" of the island with all that brand new American weapon know-how.
American politicians have a less than stellar institutional memory of U.S. military commitment in Asia.
1975 - South Vietnam and Cambodia fall to Communism.
1976 - U.S. closes air bases in Thailand.
1979 - U.S. closes all military bases in Taiwan.
1991 - U.S. pulls all military forces from the Philippines.
There were also reduction in force levels in South Korea and Japan since the end of the Cold War.
This left Southeast Asia out of U.S. military control and responsibility. In many ways, it was a retreat from the area of responsibility (AOR) after major policy changes in D.C. after the Vietnam debacle and Nixon’s opening of relations with China.
If the DPP wins again in 2024 along with a strong legislature this will be the end of any chance for a peaceful resolution.
My basic timeline for invasion is as follows:
Ghost Month (16 August- 14 September 2023) - China conducts another big exercise.
Election - KMT vs DPP - if the DPP wins then the following:
Around Tomb Sweeping 4/5 April 2024 - China conducts another mother of an exercise.
Ghost Month (15 July - 18 August 2024) - China takes military action to secure the air and sea. Missile strikes of air bases and naval facilities, along with radar and communication hubs, are destroyed.
Around Tomb Sweeping 4/5 April 2024 - if Taiwan has not surrendered after six months of an air and sea blockade, then a ground invasion with a minimum of 250,000 troops. With summer months coming, occupation forces should operate significantly better on the island than the winter months.
This is purely speculation...but I think it is a safe timeline.
Some in D.C. point to 2026, but President Xi Jinping is not getting any younger. His legacy demands taking Taiwan to become known as the Father of Modern China (replacing Mao Zedong’s portrait at Tiananmen Square).
I have already been asked this question: “Well, if you think it is so close then why not run back to America now?”
Good question…
The key is when to leave before the panic begins. There will be no backdoor off the island. This is not Ukraine; there is no highway.
Once people begin to notice the kids at the American School of AIT employees going home for a sick grandma or a funeral or whatever nonsense, I will already be gone. AIT = American Institute in Taiwan.
And if stuck here, I have already procured a decent shortwave radio for the BBC and Radio Free Asia (Chinese). Those that were here for the 1999 Earthquake should remember that most of Taiwan returned to the days of the caveman.
And you can also help fund my departure by being a PAID subscriber to my Substack:
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