China’s Spring Blockade of Taiwan
Will Taiwan Bend the Knee?
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NOTE: Because of the seriousness of 2024B, I have asked my wife to secure a two-year Electronic System For Travel Authorization (ESTA) for the U.S. Good for visits of 90 days (multi-entry). This is cheap and though it does not entitle her to apply for citizenship, it serves as an emergency backdoor.
China In Arms BOOKSTORE and GIFT SHOP!
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19 October 2024 (Saturday)
China’s Spring Blockade of Taiwan
Will Taiwan Bend the Knee?
By Wendell Minnick (Whiskey Mike) 顏文德
OPINION:
TAIPEI - I believe China’s Joint Sword 2024B Exercise is preparation for an air and sea blockade of the island, starting in the Spring (Tomb Sweeping) and continuing through the Summer, aiming to force Taiwan’s government to surrender.
CLICK TO ENLARGE:
If Taiwan’s pro-independence leadership attempts to stall, China will begin sabotage, assassination and other commando operations in Taiwan.
These operations will grow throughout the Summer until Ghost Month, when the tides are perfect, with China hitting Taiwan’s command and control nodes, air bases, radars, air defense batteries with a multi-layered, multi-directional, ballistic missile and cruise missile saturation barrage.
After this, the Chinese Air Force will deploy fighter and bomber aircraft to strike areas needing further crippling.
Chinese troops will invade the Port of Taipei (Tamshui), then secure the Tamshui River that runs south to Taipei. Along the way, Chinese troops will secure Taoyuan International Airport to allow military and commercial/civilian cargo/passenger aircraft to begin landing additional troops and equipment.
There will be a costly ground pounder of a fight involving Taiwan’s 66th Marine Corp Regiment, the Army’s Guandu Defense Command, the Aviation and Special Forces Command and 269th Mechanized Infantry.
There is no doubt that China’s 72nd Group Army’s 34th Medium Combined-Arms Brigade and Marine Corps will play a large role in the initial fighting in Tamshui.
The Joint Sword 2024B exercise was unprecedented. The Liaoning Aircraft Carrier conducted 90 sorties with fighter aircraft and 50 helicopter patrols from 13-15 October, according to a Japanese Joint Chiefs of Staff report:
Video released by China’s Eastern Theater Command dramatizing Joint Sword 2024B during past exercises in August 2022, April 2023, and May 2024:
Suggested books for edification:
Chinese Air-Launched Weapons & Surveillance, Reconnaissance and Targeting Pods (2019)
Chinese Army Vehicles: Armored Personnel Vehicles, Trucks and Logistics Support Vehicles (2019)
Chinese C4I/EW (Vol. 1) (2022) Volume 1.
Chinese C4I/EW (Vol. 2) (2022) Volume 2.
Chinese Fixed-Wing Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (2016) Note this is Volume 1.
Chinese People's Liberation Army: Analysis of a Cold War Classic (2015)
Chinese Rocket Systems: Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (2016)
Chinese Rotary/VTOL Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (2016) Volume 1.
Chinese Seaplanes, Amphibious Aircraft and Aerostats/Airships (2016)
More Chinese Fixed Wing UAVs (2019) Volume 2.
More Chinese Rotary & VTOL UAVs (2019) Volume 2.
Taiwan Army Weapons and Equipment, including Marine Corps (2022)
Taiwan Cyberwarfare: Government and Military Documents (2018)
