China Continues Encirclement

Stage Four Cancer Coming

16 March 2023

China Continues Encirclement

Stage Four Cancer Coming

By Wendell Minnick (Whiskey Mike) 顏文德

TAIPEI - The map below demonstrates continued efforts by China to encircle Taiwan.

When the box is nicely wrapped with a bow tie, Taiwan will be at Stage Four Cancer.

There is no Stage Five.

The stages of cancer reflect the stages of air supremacy. See this Post.

Though the below map indicates that China used a reconnaissance BZK-055 to fly along the southeastern coastline, they have flown Chinese fighters along this same route in the past.

Slowly strangling the island of air.

For those interested in Chinese fixed-wing UAVs, additional material can be found here Volume 1 and Volume 2.

The island continues to maintain that Stage Three can be reversed with a few extra billions from the U.S. Congress, but this might be a case of being in denial.

The southern area of Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) will also be difficult for U.S. fighter aircraft in Okinawa to defend.

There is no line of sight for U.S. fighter aircraft in Okinawa to engage Chinese fighters in the South China Sea (SCS).

Aircraft carriers could be deployed to the area, BUT it would be impossible for sustained engagement and China could simply out wait the U.S.

The map also demonstrates the increasing existential danger facing elements of Taiwan’s 99th Marine Brigade on Pratas Island; resupply by C-130 would be impossible if China made the move to capture it and China has intimidated resupply flights in the past.

Pratas is the northern most island of the SCS and occupies a strategic location. The capture of Pratas would help solidify China’s control of the SCS and no doubt serve as a potential fighter base and a placement of radar and signal intelligence (SigInt) facilities.

END