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23 May 2024 - continuously updated
Joint Sword-2024 Hits 41 Aircraft Per Day
68% of Chinese Aircraft Cross the Line
By Wendell Minnick (Whiskey Mike) 顏文德
TAIPEI - From 24 May - Present, Taiwan’s military has reported that 591 Chinese military aircraft, both combat fighters and surveillance/electronic warfare aircraft, have flown missions in support of the annual Joint Sword Exercise 2024.
Of those, a whopping 68 percent (400) have flown within Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ).
Throughout the exercise, this percentage has no changed more than +/- 1 percent.
See maps below.
Western media first described the annual exercise as a “warning” or even “punishment” for inaugurating another member of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) to the office of President of Taiwan.
But these are annual exercises and having to do with politics, though China might use rhetoric around elections to increase paranoia in the media and U.S. government. Yet, these annual exercises, including the upcoming Ghost Month exercise, are so predictable you could set your watch to them.
On 20 May, the 16th-term President Lai Ching-te was sworn-in to replace Tsai Ing-wen, who served two four-year terms.
China’s Eastern Command announced the exercise on 22 May and the annual exercise is one of two that China holds each year around Taiwan. The second is expected during the Autumn during Ghost Month.
Some of the below maps indicate air sorties near the new Port of Taipei (Tamsui) in northern Taiwan, where many Taiwan defense analysts predict China will make an amphibious landing and then use the Tamsui River south to capture Taipei City.
A decapitation strategy such as this would also allow the Chinese to capture the Taoyuan International Airport and the larger Keelung Port east of Tamshui.
The “decapitation strike” scenario is not without notice at Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense, and annual military exercises are conducted to protect the port and river from attack.
It is such a common scenario, that it is widely used in graphic novels in Taipei that depict an actual war with China. This includes the Western Pacific War: The Invasion of Taiwan:
There is debate as to why they are now being referred as “A”, “B”, “C” Joint Sword phases. One source indicated that “A” represented sea, “B” air, and “C” amphibious invasion exercise. But if someone disagrees, please let me know.
The big difference this year is the number of Coast Guard vessels participating. Taiwan has begun to lose much of the coastal controls of Kinmen Island near China’s coastline and it appears the presence of these ships during this exercise are a demonstration that Taiwan waters are no different.
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